The 14th Launch of Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy

BEIJING, Jan. 10, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — On January 7, 2024, the "The 14th Launch of Forecasting & Prospects Research Reports on Energy Economy" was held in Beijing. The conference was hosted by Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing Laboratory for System Engineering of Carbon Neutrality, and Beijing Key Laboratory of Energy Economics and Environmental Management. Nine research reports, including the "Research and Prospect of China Energy Economic Index in 2024", were released to the public. This series of reports is from the targeted research results on specific topics chosen based on changes in international and domestic energy economics and climate policy situations over the previous year, performed by the research team led by distinguished Professor Yi-Ming Wei. Since 2011, these reports have been published by Beijing Institute of Technology annually for 14 consecutive years, garnering widespread societal attention.

According to the report "Research and Prospect of China Energy Economic Index in 2024" by Bao-Jun Tang, in 2024, the energy economy will serve as a strong stimulant for the sustained recovery and improvement of the macroeconomy. High-innovation industries and main supply industries will be in a dominant position. Maintaining stability and enhancing autonomy will be the main theme of the development of the energy industry.

Bi-Ying Yu made a report on "Industry Chain Risk Assessment and Outlook for Low-carbon Technology Development". With the large-scale development of low-carbon technologies, it is necessary to guard against the risks of imbalance in the supply and demand of raw materials, capital, and labor, as well as the escalating risk of environmental impact. It is also important to guide the redistribution of relevant elements in advance to ensure a smooth upgrade of the low-carbon technology industrial chain.

According to the report "Evaluation and Complementarity Analysis of High-quality Energy Development in 30 Provinces" by Shen Qu, encouraging innovative development and promoting the electrification of end-use energy have played a key role in China’s energy development in recent years. Unearthing the profound implications and implementation paths of high-quality, synergistic energy development will be beneficial in bringing about sustained economic, social, and environmental benefits for China’s future development.

Following the report "Outlook for the Industrialization of CCUS to Achieve the Carbon Neutrality Target" by Jia-Ning Kang, it is urgent to focus on the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) emission reduction requirements for achieving carbon neutrality, to proactively deploy new industries related to equipment, materials, and services in the industrial chain, and to strengthen top-level design in aspects such as technology research and development, industrial layout, and business models.

According to the report "International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Forecasting in 2024" by Lu-Tao Zhao, with the global economic growth rate slowing down, it is difficult to boost the demand for crude oil. The impact of OPEC+ production cuts will be limited, and the expectation of oversupply will increase. In 2024, the pivot of international crude oil prices will further decline. It is estimated that the average prices of Brent and WTI crude oil will be in the range of 73-83 USD/barrel and 68-78 USD/barrel, respectively.

The report "Refined Oil Price Analysis and Forecasting in 2024" by Hui Li indicates that the refining industry will accelerate its green and high-quality development in 2024. The gasoline market will have a relaxed supply and demand, with a wholesale average price of 9000-9300 yuan/ton. The diesel market will have a tight supply and demand, with a wholesale average price of 7900-8200 yuan/ton.

According to the report "International Natural Gas Market Analysis and Projection in 2024" by You Zhou, in 2024, the elasticity of the international natural gas supply side will be enhanced, while the demand side will struggle to rise. Prices will return to fundamentals, but it is still necessary to be vigilant against sudden disturbances. The average prices of TTF, HH, and JKM are expected to be in the range of 15-18, 2.90-3.54, and 15.5-17 USD per million British thermal units, respectively.

The report "Achievements and Prospects of China’s Carbon Market Construction (2024)" by Ke Wang shows that the initial effects of emission reduction incentives and constraints in the national carbon market are becoming evident. The next steps will involve continuously improving the institutional system from aspects such as industry coverage and quota allocation methods, providing important institutional safeguards for actively responding to the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism.

According to the report "China’s Energy Economic Situation and Forecasting (2024)" by Hua Liao, our country has taken solid steps towards high-quality development in energy economics, enhancing energy security. The driving force behind energy demand has undergone a transformation, and some traditional energy-intensive and scale industries are no longer the fields of consumption increment.

Professor Yi-Ming Wei chaired the report conference. Professor Hua Liao introduced the overall situation of the energy economy forecast and outlook, and made a prospect and elaboration on China’s energy economy situation and key issues in 2024.

Representatives from 30 media outlets, including China Media Group, Xinhua News Agency, and People’s Daily Online, participated in the coverage of this press conference. More than 2000 people from all walks of life participated in the conference both online and offline. Joint International Research Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality System and Engineering Management, Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, School of Management and Economics, BIT, Chinese Society of Energy Economics and Management , Energy Economics Professional Committee of China Energy Research Society , Editorial Department of Coal Economic Research, Committee of Carbon Mitigation Engineering Management of China Coal Society were the co-organizers of this report release conference.

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